Improvements on coronal hole detection in SDO/AIA images using supervised classification

We demonstrate the use of machine learning algorithms in combination with segmentation techniques in order to distinguish coronal holes and filaments in SDO/AIA EUV images of the Sun. Based on two coronal hole detection techniques (intensity-based thresholding, SPoCA), we prepared data sets of manually labeled coronal hole and filament channel regions present on the Sun during the time range 2011 - 2013. By mapping the extracted regions from EUV observations onto HMI line-of-sight magnetograms we also include their magnetic characteristics. We computed shape measures from the segmented binary maps as well as first order and second order texture statistics from the segmented regions in the EUV images and magnetograms. These attributes were used for data mining investigations to identify the most performant rule to differentiate between coronal holes and filament channels. We applied several classifiers, namely Support Vector Machine, Linear Support Vector Machine, Decision Tree, and Random Forest and found that all classification rules achieve good results in general, with linear SVM providing the best performances (with a true skill statistic of ~0.90). Additional information from magnetic field data systematically improves the performance across all four classifiers for the SPoCA detection. Since the calculation is inexpensive in computing time, this approach is well suited for applications on real-time data. This study demonstrates how a machine learning approach may help improve upon an unsupervised feature extraction method.Comment: in press for SWS

Analysis of Granular Flow in a Pebble-Bed Nuclear Reactor

Pebble-bed nuclear reactor technology, which is currently being revived around the world, raises fundamental questions about dense granular flow in silos. A typical reactor core is composed of graphite fuel pebbles, which drain very slowly in a continuous refueling process. Pebble flow is poorly understood and not easily accessible to experiments, and yet it has a major impact on reactor physics. To address this problem, we perform full-scale, discrete-element simulations in realistic geometries, with up to 440,000 frictional, viscoelastic 6cm-diameter spheres draining in a cylindrical vessel of diameter 3.5m and height 10m with bottom funnels angled at 30 degrees or 60 degrees. We also simulate a bidisperse core with a dynamic central column of smaller graphite moderator pebbles and show that little mixing occurs down to a 1:2 diameter ratio. We analyze the mean velocity, diffusion and mixing, local ordering and porosity (from Voronoi volumes), the residence-time distribution, and the effects of wall friction and discuss implications for reactor design and the basic physics of granular flow.Comment: 18 pages, 21 figure

Validity and worth in the science curriculum: learning school science outside the laboratory

It is widely acknowledged that there are problems with school science in many developed countries of the world. Such problems manifest themselves in a progressive decline in pupil enthusiasm for school science across the secondary age range and the fact that fewer students are choosing to study the physical sciences at higher levels and as careers. Responses to these developments have included proposals to reform the curriculum, pedagogy and the nature of pupil discussion in science lessons. We support such changes but argue from a consideration of the aims of science education that secondary school science is too rooted in the science laboratory; substantially greater use needs to be made of out-of-school sites for the teaching of science. Such usage should result in a school science education that is more valid and more motivating and is better at fulfilling defensible aims of school science education. Our contention is that laboratory-based school science teaching needs to be complemented by out-of-school science learning that draws on the actual world (e.g. through fieldtrips), the presented world (e.g. in science centres, botanic gardens, zoos and science museums) and the virtual worlds that are increasingly available through information and communications technologies (ICT)

Drag-Based CME Modeling With Heliospheric Images Incorporating Frontal Deformation : ELEvoHI 2.0

The evolution and propagation of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in interplanetary space is still not well understood. As a consequence, accurate arrival time and arrival speed forecasts are an unsolved problem in space weather research. In this study, we present the ELlipse Evolution model based on HI observations (ELEvoHI) and introduce a deformable front to this model. ELEvoHI relies on heliospheric imagers (HI) observations to obtain the kinematics of a CME. With the newly developed deformable front, the model is able to react to the ambient solar wind conditions during the entire propagation and along the whole front of the CME. To get an estimate of the ambient solar wind conditions, we make use of three different models: Heliospheric Upwind eXtrapolation model (HUX), Heliospheric Upwind eXtrapolation with time dependence model (HUXt), and EUropean Heliospheric FORecasting Information Asset (EUHFORIA). We test the deformable front on a CME first observed in STEREO-A/HI on February 3, 2010 14:49 UT. For this case study, the deformable front provides better estimates of the arrival time and arrival speed than the original version of ELEvoHI using an elliptical front. The new implementation enables us to study the parameters influencing the propagation of the CME not only for the apex, but for the entire front. The evolution of the CME front, especially at the flanks, is highly dependent on the ambient solar wind model used. An additional advantage of the new implementation is given by the possibility to provide estimates of the CME mass.Peer reviewe

Prediction of the in situ coronal mass ejection rate for solar cycle 25: Implications for Parker Solar Probe in situ observations

The Parker Solar Probe (PSP) and Solar Orbiter missions are designed to make groundbreaking observations of the Sun and interplanetary space within this decade. We show that a particularly interesting in situ observation of an interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) by PSP may arise during close solar flybys ($< 0.1$~AU). During these times, the same magnetic flux rope inside an ICME could be observed in situ by PSP twice, by impacting its frontal part as well as its leg. Investigating the odds of this situation, we forecast the ICME rate in solar cycle 25 based on 2 models for the sunspot number (SSN): (1) the forecast of an expert panel in 2019 (maximum SSN = 115), and (2) a prediction by McIntosh et al. (2020, maximum SSN = 232). We link the SSN to the observed ICME rates in solar cycles 23 and 24 with the Richardson and Cane list and our own ICME catalog, and calculate that between 1 and 7 ICMEs will be observed by PSP at heliocentric distances $< 0.1$ AU until 2025, including 1$\sigma$ uncertainties. We then model the potential flux rope signatures of such a double-crossing event with the semi-empirical 3DCORE flux rope model, showing a telltale elevation of the radial magnetic field component $B_R$, and a sign reversal in the component $B_N$ normal to the solar equator compared to field rotation in the first encounter. This holds considerable promise to determine the structure of CMEs close to their origin in the solar corona.Comment: 11 pages, 6 figures, accepted for publication in the Astrophysical Journal on 2020 September 1

A universal framework for Space Resource Utilisation (SRU)

Space Resource Utilisation (SRU) or In Situ Resource Utilisation (ISRU) is the use of natural resources from the Moon, Mars and other bodies for use in situ or elsewhere in the Solar System. The implementation of SRU technologies will provide the breakthrough for humankind to explore further into space. A range of extraction processes to produce usable resources have been proposed, such as oxygen production from lunar regolith, extraction of lunar ice and construction of habitation by 3D printing. Practical and successful implementation of SRU requires that all the stages of the process flowsheet (excavation, beneficiation and extraction) are considered. This requires a complete ‘mine-to-market’ type approach, analogous to that of terrestrial mineral extraction. One of the key challenges is the unique cross-disciplinary nature of SRU; it integrates space systems, robotics, materials handling and beneficiation, and chemical process engineering. This is underpinned by knowledge of the lunar or planetary geology, including mineralogy, physical characteristics, and the variability in local materials. Combining such diverse fields in a coordinated way requires the use of a universal framework. The framework will enable integration of operations and comparison of technologies, and will define a global terminology to be used across all fields. In this paper, a universal SRU flowsheet and terminology are described, and a matrix approach to describing regolith characteristics specifically for SRU is proposed. This is the first time that such an approach has been taken to unify this rapidly-developing sector